PEI election wrapup/prediction

I last dropped in just before the PEI election, which is going on as I type.

Our of respect for my dear old Dad (whose campaign adventures are chronicled here), I've held my tongue so far, but now seeing as it's almost all over but the counting, I wanted to share some thoughts and some predictions. I've been devoting lots of mental energy to democracy in my home province, so I need to unburden myself.

First, the background. Premier Pat Binns is seeking a record fourth term as premier. If he wins, he would be the only Conservative in Canadian history to win four consecutive elections and would be the longest serving Island premier about 2 years into his new term, which by his demeanour of late, seems more and ore unlikely. Binns has staked his reelection chances on his personality and popularity among Islanders, adopting the slogan "Leadership That Works", after all Wikipedia calls him PEI's "affable and unassuming premier."

His challenger for the Premier's chair is the youthful Liberal leader of the Opposition, Robert Ghiz, 33 year-old son of former premier Joe Ghiz, which as he candidly acknowledges in this good CP piece has been both a blessing and a curse. As the Tory campaign has demonstrated, by its emphasis on the Premier, some Islanders feel the younger Ghiz is not as ready for the job as his Harvard-educated father was. However, if Robert can be as focused and on message for the next four years as he was for the last four weeks, he may go down in history as a two-term Premier as well.

Simply, the Tories have tried to make it about the choice of Premier, while the Liberals, with their (excellent) slogan "Islanders First for a Change" sought to be the beneficiaries of a change of government and frustration with years of Tory government.

The most significant event in the campaign so far was a May 19 poll in the Charlottetown Guardian newspaper which showed the Liberal party with a significant lead and a projected majority government. While still within the margin of error, this was likely the only time in Binns' career that he was 7 points behind the Opposition.

The Electoral Geography

Before getting on to a prediction, I'll review the electoral landscape on PEI (see here for a CBC piece on the swing seats. A cursory look at PEI electoral history shows us that few seats are truly safe. I'd classify the following seats as likely wins for Liberals - Districts 13 (Ghiz), 16, 17 and 18. All of these districts are currently represented by the Liberals and save a very unlikely swing back to the Tories from 2003 results, they will win these seats.

For the Tories, considering the results of the CRA poll, they likely only have about four seats truly safe for them - Districts 2, 4 (the Premier), 7 and 20. However, I'd say that there are another three seats the Tories will win even in a worst case scenario - Districts 5, 10 and 27.

However, based upon past results and the results of CRA poll, which showed a big Liberal lead in Queens County in particular, I'd say there are another 8 likely Liberal wins - Districts 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 22 (Go Dad! this poor CBC reporter must've been spun right around by Tories at Bakin' Donuts), 24 and 25.

Now this leaves 8 seats as the battleground ridings - Districts 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 21, 23 and 26. If the Tories pull them all off they could still win a bare majority, but I wouldn't bet on it. They might be able to hold off Liberal gains in half of those ridings, but no more. I'll say the Tories could still take four of those seats due to their strength in rural PEI, let give Districts 1, 3, 9 and 26 to the Tories. That leaves these as my final predictions.

Predictions:

Liberals (16) - Districts 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25

PCs (11) - Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 20, 26 and 27.

NDP and Greens 0 - On these two parties, as much as I wish they'd be in Province House, frankly, they are marginal to this campaign. The bigger fight is for fair voting in PEI and thankfully, my predicted winner have promised a Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform for PEI (although I can't find the promise on their website).

I'd predict both the minor parties get less than 3% of the vote, possibly even less than 2%. I'd say the odds are even on which one wins more votes, to bug my girlfriend, I'll pick the PEI NDP.

Most successful non-Lib/PC candidate - Larry McGuire in District #7, who I think can take second.

Most successful NDP/Green candidate - NDP Leader Dean Constable in District #12, who could top 10%. If he tops 20%, I'll be wrong with my prediction and this on could go PC. Although I could see Green Jamie Larkin doing well in District #19 and Ryan Pollard for the NDP in District #21.

Well the polls close soon, so I'll end this post. I'll be back later tonight with more thoughts. Interesting things to watch tonight:

- The "bandwagon" effect - will a perceived Liberal win swing lots of seats as undecided voters plump for a government MLA?
- The "leadership" effect - Will Islanders go for "leadership that works"? Do rural Islanders really have something against Robert Ghiz?
- The "change" effect - What percentage of voters vote for change (for parties other than the PCs)? Will the Liberal be able to get most of this vote?
- The map effect - How will the gerrymandered electoral map affect the results? Keep in mind the Tories drew the boundaries to suit their political purposes, so they could very well win a majority with less votes than the Liberals.