Live blogging the Quebec election:

If you didn't know yet, I love elections. Find them fascinating. Want to spend my life studying them and working on them and this Quebec 2007 provincial election had been fascinating.

The rise of l'Action dmocratique du Quebec (l'equipe Mario Dumont) has blown apart the Quebec party system. Should be a great night.

9:00 p.m.

Dumont and the ADQ lead in seats. OK, no one saw this coming.

ADQ 45 (30% of the vote), Liberals 44 (33% of the vote) and PQ 35 (30% of the vote), wtf!

ADQ in third, but leading in seats!

I called it on Democratic Space in a comment page the other day, but predict Charest really wishes he had pushed electoral reform through tonight!

9:10 p.m.

CBC calls a minority government. Duh!

9:15 p.m.

CBC just did live look-ins to the ADQ and Liberal HQs in Sherbrooke and Riviere-du-Loup. Totally different scenes, dead in the Eastern Townships, euphoria in Eastern Quebec.

Now the ADQ are ahead in both seats and votes. Boisclair has mortally wounded the separatist movement if these numbers hold. Surely, there are still lots of close races and this can go anyways still. Only 18% of the polls so far, so no need to call it yet.

ADQ 48 (32% of the vote), Liberals 41 (31% of the vote) and PQ 36 (29% of the vote).

9:20 p.m.

Cut to PQ HQ. Doesn't seem too lively there. CBC reports Boisclair is in trouble unless his numbers improve. Duh!

The CBC panel of average voters as flummoxed, as am I. Should be a long night.

9:25 p.m.

CBC finally cuts to the race I'm most interested in, Mercier.

Turp (PQ) 1706, Khadir (Quebec Solidaire) 1576.

Soyons lucides Mercier, votons Solidaires!

9:30 p.m.

Apparently people at Charest's party in Sherbrooke are talking about what these results mean for Ottawa. The CBC reporter notes it's assumed there that Harper is very happy with the results.

9:45 p.m.

Apparently, PQ "senior strategists" are seen crying openly.

Charest still losing to the PQ in Sherbrooke. QS still behind in Mercier, but only by 100 votes, still possible to dream. Couillard the last Liberal standing in la capitale nationale.

Discussion of Dumont's team. CBC English TV is not as confident in their abilities as les Quebecois are. Libs are up 47-43-35. ADQ supporters still partying like rockstars!

10:00 p.m.

ADQ elected in Saint-Jean, the bellwhether riding that has elected a government member every election since 1942. PQ lead in Sherbrooke expanding.

Liberals still leading in popular vote. Liberal pointy head in Sherbrooke makes clear that Jean Charest will will be leading the Liberal government. Seems a little wishful at this point ...

CBC panel notes that this will likely be an "unstable minority". Note to self: have to do an entire blog entry on how PR would ensure stability. Turp's lead in Mercier is now 600, with about 60% of the polls in :(

Liberals still in seat lead. Turnover in l'assemblee nationale will be crazy this time, maybe even 50%. Apparently, its average age will decline as lots of ADQ candidates are younger. Oh, and also the number of women will decline apparently. We'll have to get back to that point ...

10:15 p.m.

Guy in CBC voters' panel makes great point, Charest lost the middle class.

At Liberal HQ, they won't even talk about working with the ADQ. Deck chairs are arranged.

CBC projects Liberal minority government. Charest won't let them see him watch the results, probably because he's still losing his riding. They say the ADQ is now second, the PQ can't catch them.

10:30 p.m.

CBC calls Mercier. PQ hold. Looks like the progressive, environmentalist, feminist left, which garnered about 3-4% of the vote, will be shut out of the legislature.

CBC calls Sherbrooke - Charest goes down! As the CBC panel notes, Charest is likely still premier, but can he stay on? I bet that he resigns and opens a Liberal leadership race.

I'm taking a break for this live blog but will be back in a bit when things look more solid.

11:25 p.m.

Apparently, Charest's back in the lead. News from Sherbrooke is that dastardly separatists were holding back the advance polls.

Dumont makes his appearance in Riv-du-Loup. Figured he'd wait longer. ADQ supporters go apeshit!

12:30 p.m.

Looks like the pudgy little f**ker pulled it out. He won his seat and held on to power, just barely.

LIB			47	32.95%
ADQ			42	30.87%
PQ			36	28.37%

Will be lots of interesting stuff to discuss tomorrow. Who are those ADQ candidates? Apparently, a 23-year old student won.

Some brief thoughts on the budget ...

- Looks like Boisclair saved us all from a Spring election. This must be the first time a provincial (separatist, no less) opposition leader determined FEDERAL election timing.

- But with no federal election in the offing, it looks like there will be a election in Prince Edward Island in the coming weeks. While Flaherty didn't deliver a 10-province standard with full inclusion of natural resources, he has undoubtedly delivered more for PEI on this file than 4 government MPs ever did (as PEI had all Liberal MPs throughout the Liberal government years). Binns will be rightly able to claim that his relationship with Harper delivered more money for PEI and I'm sure he thinks that can help ensure he becomes PEIs longest serving premier (well, he'd have to stay on until 2009 to do that, which is an open question).

- Is it just me or is Harper doing a good job of being moderate? I mean when the harshest criticism for you budget are coming the business lobby ad the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, we're talking about a Liberal budget. Of course, the Liberals and the NDP will oppose it for fear they are slapped by the other as "propping up Harper", but this will certainly make it harder to paint Harper as a scary boogeyman who will make us all Americans.

- Finally, flowing from that last point, clearly Harper would love to go to the polls on this budget. Will he find an issue to bring down parliament on this session? I tend to think not, because to do so he might have to make something really right-wing a confidence matter, which would kind of defeat the whole purpose of all this moderation.

Should we working for democracy this morning, but saw something in my morning perusal of Macleans online (which is really great, btw), I saw this story about the NDPs budget demands and my blood started to boil a little bit.

Good to see Jack getting out and setting parameters for NDP support for the budget. And I guess it's smart politics to make a solid pitch to win Saskatchewan seats, after all they are eminently winnable. But calling for the exclusion of resource revenues from the equalization is bad policy and not in line with NDP values.

Why? Because this would royally screw my beloved home province and is not in the spirit of the constitution.

Subsection 36 (2) of the Constitution states that "Parliament and the government of Canada are committed to the principle of making Equalization payments to ensure that provincial governments have sufficient revenues to provide reasonably comparable levels of public services at reasonably comparable levels of taxation."

I fail to see how excluding oil and gas revenues, which as Canada inevitably becomes an energy superpower will definitely become and bigger component of provincial budgets, from the equalization formula helps equalize provincial services.

In the interests of fairness, the NDP should be calling for nothing less than a 10-province standard that includes all provincial revenues. Anything else, in an era of rising energy prices, is unfair. If the goal of equalization is to allow provinces to provide equal services at comparable taxation levels, then you can't exclude the huge pile of petro-dollars in their coffers from the calculation. To do so will prevent provinces with no oil or gas, like poor little PEI, from having the same fiscal capacity as other provinces.

The biggest irony is that PEI might have the most forward looking energy and environmental policies of any provincial government. Despite an ongoing fiscal crunch, PEI has made investment in wind power a priority and are set to be leaders in this industry, that I thought Jack Layton supported.

The NDP is no more likely to win seats in PEI than they are in the Saguenay or Missisauga or Calgary, but that doesn't mean they should not get behind a fair equalization system that works for all Canadians.

Five ways you can help Ontario’s democratic revolution!

ontario@fairvote.ca

An Open Letter Ontario students and youth:

First, I want you to circle October 10, 2007, on your calendar, because that’s the day we change Ontario politics forever.

But we need you – and thousands of other students and youth – to step up and help make it happen. This is your personal invitation to make political history. On October 10, we’ll have the opportunity to cast out our antiquated electoral system and replace it with a new democratic voting system that is more responsive to young voters and everyone else.

As you may aware (or not, the mainstream media is doing a great job ignoring them!), the Ontario Citizens’ Assembly, composed of randomly selected voters, is studying the question of voting system reform for Ontario. Next month, they are very likely to recommend that Ontario adopt a new voting system, probably based on proportional representation. If the Assembly recommends a new system, that recommendation will be put to voters in a referendum to be held in conjunction with the October 10 provincial election.

What’s At Stake?

Political power. The future direction of our province. Legislation on issues like health care, education, the environment.

The voting system matters. It matters a lot, because the voting system allocates political power, creates parliaments and determines who forms governments. That in turn determines who calls the shots on issues that affect our communities, our society and the environment.

The stakes are incredibly high. If we change the voting system, giving every Ontarian an equal and effective vote, we change the entire political arena. If we change the voting system in Canada’s largest province, the political effect will be felt right across the country. Politics as usual will be over!

How Bad is the Current System?

It’s intolerable. Ontarians (and all Canadians) suffer the effects of the world’s worst electoral system – first-past-the post.

Typically, a party gets about 40 percent of the votes, wins 60 percent or more of the seats and then wields 100 percent of the power, as though it had a majority mandate. Meanwhile opposition voices are diminished and other minority voices are completely shut out of the political process.

Are There Better Ways to Vote?

Yes. Almost all the Western democracies scrapped first-past-the-post voting last century, and adopted voting systems designed to treat all voters equally and give fair and proportional election results. More than 80 democracies, including almost all of Western Europe use various forms of these fair and proportional voting systems. Each has developed a version to fit their distinctive political cultures and geography – Ontario can do likewise.

Fair voting systems provide better results for citizens. They elect more women and visible minorities and have higher voter turnouts. Voters feel better represented and are happier with government policies. Finally, fair voting systems have been shown to have better environmental policies, higher energy efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

What Can You Do To Make It Happen?

Fair Vote Canada, through our Fair Vote Ontario campaign, is preparing to win the fight for a fair and democratic voting system in October. To ensure that young voters know the importance of a fair voting system, Fair Vote is organizing a student and youth campaign to be active on campuses this Fall.

Here is how you can help:

1) Visit the Fair Vote Canada www.fairvote.ca and Fair Vote Ontario www.fairvote.ca/ontario website. Learn more about the issues and our campaign.

2) Volunteer to help the Fair Vote Ontario student and youth campaign to win the October 4 referendum. To keep informed email me at mark.greenan@fairvote.ca.

3) Bring the issue of voting reform to organizations you are involved with. Encourage them to endorse our campaign and support a renewed democracy.

4) Get together with your friends and organize a Fair Vote chapter on your campus. We are looking for coordinating teams on every Ontario campus. If this interests you, please contact us.

5) Most importantly: forward this email to friends and other email lists!

Democratic reform is a do-it-yourself project for citizens. We cannot depend on the media or those in positions of power to lead the democracy revolution. It’s up to us! Let’s do it!

Yours for a strong democracy,
Mark Greenan
Interim Chair
Student and Youth Campaign
Fair Vote Ontario
mark.greenan@fairvote.ca