Showing posts with label PEI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PEI. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

More on MMP and truthiness

Before I start my blog series discussing the problems with the debate over the upcoming referendum, I thought it might be good to give a little background on why I became so interested in the issue of electoral reform.

They say apathy and loss of civic interest characterizes my generation, but I’ve always been interested in politics. I grew up in a political home in Prince Edward Island, the kind of place where issues of the day were (and still are whenever I’m back) invariably discussed at the kitchen table. This led to a life-long interest in political affairs, particularly elections. My parents are both educators – in my view, the noblest profession – and always promoted critical thinking and open discussion.

I had the distinct pleasure of serving as a legislative page in both the PEI Legislative Assembly and the House of Commons, so I’ve observed more than my share of parliamentary debates.

I observed grown men and women two or three times my age behave like children. Sadly, in a 21st Century Canadian legislature, “debate” appears to be far too often characterized by misleading, personal and unwarranted attacks on political opponents rather than a respectful discussion of policy alternatives. At its root, this must be a reflection of the inescapable fact that, due to our outdated first-past-the-post electoral systems, our legislatures reflect neither how we vote nor our diversity. Thanks to our pre-democratic voting system, we are facing the challenges of a new millennium with political institutions that under-represent minority viewpoints, inflame regional tensions and prevent new ideas and perspectives from entering the legislature.

By the end of my year in the House, I knew that we could ask for more from our politicians and our democratic institutions, I just didn’t know exactly how to remedy this problem. In my second year at university, I learned more about the diversity of voting systems used around the world. It was like a bolt of lightning – we could demand more from our politicians and proportional representation was the way to best hold them to account. I sent in my membership form to Fair Vote Canada shortly thereafter and have been involved with the organization for years now.

The summer after second-year university, as a part of co-operative work placement, I worked as a research assistant at the Public Policy Forum, an Ottawa-based think tank. The main project I worked on, and certainly the one I enjoyed most, was on youth voter turnout – which as I’m sure you are aware is steadily in decline. I studied a good portion of the academic literature on this subject and had come to the inescapable conclusion that talking about increasing voter participation without fixing our broken electoral system is ignoring the real reason behind the problem. And when you think about it, does it not make sense that young Canadians of my generation, who are accustomed to unbelievable choice in most areas of their lives – from beauty products to colas to television channels – are being turned off by a political system that reduces the effective choices they can make?

So when my home province was holding a plebiscite on a form of mixed-member proportional in the Fall of 2005, I had to go back to get involved with the campaign. Over the course of three months, I had the great pleasure of working with a great group of supporters and doing my best to educate Islanders about MMP.

At a public forum in PEI moths after the plebiscite was over, I gave a speech that I’ve posted on my blog before, and I think much of what I said is relevant to the ongoing campaign here in Ontario:

I’m still disappointed that I obviously didn’t educate enough Islanders. I think we can all agree most voters felt did not feel sufficiently informed on the issue, many clearly didn’t feel it was worth their time – or would make much difference to them …

Because as much as I wish I could say otherwise, November 28th was NOT a bright day for Island democracy. I believe the plebiscite results reflect:
- lack of knowledge about MMP among many voters
- increased cynicism among voters
- deepening cleavages between urban and rural Islanders, ones stoked by the failures of successive generations of MLAs to take leadership on modernizing our voting system
- low turnout (likely due to lack of polls/voter info cards/lineups). The turnout was much lower than indicated in a survey done before the plebiscite.
- finally, it is difficult to even gauge support for changing our voting system among Islanders, as it seems every second thing the No side was “we support electoral reform, just not this model”

I guess the primary lesson I learned from this Fall was that it’s easier to tear something down than to build something up

It is easier for opponents of fair voting systems to misinform the public than it is for proponents to educate them on the functioning of alternative electoral systems ...

Again as I’ve said to members of the group in private discussion, the No side’s work during the Fall can be fairly described as misleading, incorrect, and designed to play upon Islanders’ misconceptions rather than their hopes for a more democratic future.


My experience in PEI made me very skeptical about the motivations of those opposed to electoral reform. And I see many of the same misleading arguments being used here in Ontario. Although I must note that the movement for electoral reform in Ontario is MUCH broader and deeper than it was on PEI two years ago. We have hundreds of times more supporters and a much more broad-based support network, bringing in people from all political perspectives.

In short, we're much better prepared to win this vote on MMP. But we still need your help and support.

As I will argue in this blog series, those opposed to MMP are either willfully misleading Ontarians about how it will affect our political life or just ignorant of how proportional voting systems work. I’m very proud of how the Vote for MMP campaign is sticking factual and verifiable claims about how electoral change will affect government and democracy in this province.

I would compare the public debate on MMP to two other controversial debates of recent years – the debate leading up to the Iraq War and surrounding climate change. In all three cases, we can see certain political interests and actors willfully distorting the facts to serve political ends.

In my mind, talking about “appointed party hack MPPs” is no different than talking about “weapons of mass destruction”. Pretending that MMP won’t affect women’s representation at Queen’s Park is logically analogous to asserting that CO2 emissions have nothing to do with rising global temperatures. They ignore the best available evidence and research - why? Because the facts don't support those interests' pre-ordained positions - invading Iraq, protecting the oil industry and preserving the electoral status quo.

The Citizens’ Assembly process inaugurated by the current government could have been a shining example of deliberative democracy. But deliberative democracy necessitates informed and reasoned decision-making. We already know that most voters aren't aware of the referendum and even less feel informed. So unless the Ontarians can see through the spin and misinformation about MMP, it will be difficult to say that the October 10 referendum is a triumph for democracy - regardless of the results.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Vote for Alex Campbell, Defeat Wacky Bennett!

I'm taking a second away from improving democracy to direct your attention to another important democratic matter - Calgary Grit's Canada's Best Premier contest.

The winner of the PEIs best premier contest that I hosted, Alex Campbell is facing off in the quarter-finals versus reactionary BC premier "Wacky Bennett".

While Campbell was a Liberal, he is undoubtedly the Garden Province's most lefty premier. He brought a traditionalist province (at times reluctantly) into the modern world. His accomplishments in changing PEI for the better are unrivalled.

If you've got 10 minutes to spare and want to know more about Campbell, check out this fascinating old CBC piece on the remarkably close election that put him in the Premier's chair.

And I'm sure there must be lots of progressive bloggers out there who don't want to see a premier who was taken to calling the NDP "socialist hordes" who "couldn't run a peanut stand" beat a progressive Premier. So vote here for Alex Campbell.

Monday, July 30, 2007

PEIs best Premier winner

After another low turnout, it looks like we've got a winner in the PEIs greatest premier contest.

My personal choice come through victorious - Alex Campbell - the Island's longest serving premier, who is often credited with being the strongest modernizing force in PEI history.

I'm looking forward the rest of the competition and hope the blogosphere in the rest of the country will give Campbell a fair shake.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

PEIs best premier - Finals

Finally, we've arrived at the finals for PEIs best premier. It's come down to a battle between the longest serving Conservative premier in Island history versus the longest serving Liberal premier - Pat Binns vs. Alex Campbell.

You can vote to determine PEIs greatest premier by clicking on this link.

I've already cast my vote for Campbell, but I think both of these two would be worthy choices.

Since voting's been slowing to a crawl the last few rounds, I'm not going to go on about the two candidates, but look at previous posts for my take on them. I will leave you with a couple of good media links from the CBC though. First, a CBC-TV story on Binns' first victory in 1996. Second, a great longer TV piece on the oh-so-close, and fascinating, election that put Campbell in the premier's office in 1966.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

PEIs best premier - Semi-finals almost finished

It's really late and I've been working all day, plus the number of votes in this is almost non-existant, so I'm not going to go into great depth. I'll just explain my votes in this round.

If you care about who's named PEIs best premier, take the time to vote. Your vote really will count!

Pat Binns (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here

I've been torn on who to pick in this match-up. Binns certainly has a longer record as premier and much more electoral success. However, MacLean also had a very impressive streak of nine electoral wins after close losses in his first two federal elections in 1945 and 1949. Also, MacLean retired of his own accord, rather than going down in flames in the worst PEI election campaign I've ever observed.

Binns certainly deserves credit for growing the Island economy, despite having a federal government and 4 Liberal MPs who seemed to be determined to underfund the Island provincial goverment. However, his embrace of Stephen Harper in the 2005-6 election campaign was, in hindsight, clearly a big strategic mistake (I've got to think that Binns must have been a little disappointed that he couldn't run against Ottawa for a fourth consecutive election).

Binns deserves credit for bringing the issue of electoral reform to the table on PEI, but when the time came for him to take leadership on the issue he chickened out. Also, his overblown rhetoric and inability to control his caucus during the gerrymandering fiasco of Summer 2006 is a stain on his reputation. I was leaning towards casting my vote for Binns, but then I saw this news story today and was reminded of the Binns government's propensity to use the public purse to reward its supporters. As a result I'm going to cast my vote for the only Tory my maternal grandparents ever liked, the man who the Globe and Mail said "has the charm of a potato" - J. Angus MacLean!

Joe Ghiz (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Alex Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here

This battle between two legendary Liberal families was also a tough choice for me. Joe Ghiz was certainly a giant in PEI politics. He was the Premier who started the negotiations that led to the Confederation Bridge and played an important role on the national stage during the Meech Lake Accord. Renowned on PEI for his intellect and rhetorical flourish, he never was able to live up to his Opposition promises of reducing patronage once he got into government. Hopefully, his son's legacy as Premier will be to cleanse the PEI government of low politics.

But I've got to go with Alex Campbell. While he did loom as large on the national stage, he dramatically affect Island life, radically reshaping its institutions and nudging (at times dragging) a traditional society into the modern era. Thanks to a brilliant campaign by the younger Ghiz this spring, he will remain PEIs longest serving premier for at least another decade - and I would argue, PEIs best premier!

The voting will continue until Friday afternoon around 6:00 Atlantic time. Then I'll set up another poll for the finals, which will go until Sunday evening.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

PEIs best premier - Semi-final matchups

I'm a little disappointed with the number of votes in the last round, but we'll plow ahead with the contest nonetheless.

The semi-finals are just what I expected with Alex Campbell and Angus MacLean moving on. That sets up another round of matchups between a pair of Liberal and a pair of Tory premiers in the semi-finals. All four legendary figures in Island politics and the latter match-up being a particularly interesting one between mentor and protege.

Pat Binns (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here

Joe Ghiz (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Alex Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here

The voting will continue until Friday afternoon around 6:00 Atlantic time. Will be back tomorrow sometime with a break-down of these match-ups.

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

PEIs best premier - Quarter-finals end tomorrow

I’m disappointed with the low numbers of votes in this round so far. We had just over 40 votes in the preliminary round, but only 11 so far – between the two match-ups!

The voting in this round will close late tomorrow evening, so get your votes in!

Alex Campbell v. Walter Jones – vote here

Alex B. Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca)

As I’ve said, the younger Campbell would be my personal choice for the Island’s greatest premier – and not just because he’s the only remain native of my home town Summerside. Although his premiership ended before I was born, Campbell had a sterling reputation in my Liberal family. Generally acknowledged as a forward-thinking visionary, Campbell had a bigger vision for the Island than anyone who’s come before or after him. He left a permanent mark on Island politics through the establishment of restrictions of absentee ownership of land, the development of consolidated schools in rural PEI and the establishment of UPEI by combining the two denominational post-secondary institutions that were in Charlottetown.

J. Walter Jones (wiki/gov.pe.ca)

“Farmer Jones” would not be my choice for best premier, but he clearly was a passionate promoter of Island agriculture. Credited with starting the seed potato industry on PEI, he also played an important role in the silver fox farming industry. He first ran for elected office as a Farmer-Progressive candidate in the 1921 federal election, but would become a Liberal in the 1935 sweep, taking the Premier’s chair eight years later after Alex’s father Thane took a seat on the bench. While not a friend of organized labour, Jones does get some credit in my books for being the Premier to finally bring an end to prohibition in the Garden Province (which was of course the last in Canada to do so).

Angus MacLean v. James Stewart – vote here

Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca)

MacLean had a variety of jobs in his long life – fighter pilot, MP, Minsiter of Fisheries, Postmaster General, Premier and blueberry farmer. Also, he served as a mentor to a future Premier, and one of the leaders in this contest so far, Pat Binns. A distant relative of mine (and no, not everyone on PEI is related, MacLean is fondly remembered by many Islanders for his devotion to the traditional Island way of life, despite only being Premier for just over two years. He fought suburban sprawl (something later Premiers should have emulated), even bringing in a moratorium on shopping malls.

James Stewart (wiki/gov.pe.ca)

I’m away from a library or my books on Island history, so I can’t do much further research on Stewart, so I’ll just repeat what I wrote last week. I gotta give the guy credit for being the first Island premier to serve two separate terms and having the cojones to fight the prohibitionists.

Stewart became Premier in 1923 when he defeated John Howatt Bell’s Liberals. He would lose his post in 1927 for being – god forbid! – unwilling to bring in complete prohibition. Tenaciously he stuck around for another term as Leader of the Opposition and became Premier for a second time in 1931. He would press Ottawa for a better deal to help the Island deal with the Depression, but the job took a toll on his health and he would die two years later.

Monday, July 23, 2007

PEIs best premier - Quarter-finals

It’s now Monday afternoon and I’m calling the voting for the preliminary round of PEIs best premier closed.

The Premiers moving on to the next round are:

1 (tie). Pat Binns
1 (tie). Joe Ghiz
3. Alex B. Campbell
4. Angus MacLean
5. James D. Stewart
6. J. Walter Jones

So in the quarter-final matchups, it looks like a contest between two Liberals and another between two Tory premiers.

Alex B. Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. J. Walter Jones (wiki/gov.pe.ca) – vote here

J. Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. James D. Stewart (wiki/gov.pe.ca) – vote here

Voting in this round will continue until Wednesday at 6:00 p.m. Atlantic Standard Time.

I’ll be back here tomorrow with some more background on the candidates and my picks to go on to the semi-finals.

Sunday, July 22, 2007

Last day to vote for PEIs best premier

After about 41 votes, the final six for the PEIs best premier contest are coming into focus. In this last post before revealing the finalists, I'll just briefly provide some background on the best Island premiers of the past generation, as it looks likely that most of them will be on to the next round. I'll also provide a brief tribute if one doesn't make it through.

J. Angus MacLean - wiki/gov.pe.ca

A distant relative of mine, MacLean was a war hero, MP, Minister of Fisheries (surprise!) and a passionate defender of the Island's rural way of life.

Joe Ghiz - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Canada's first premier of non-European extraction, Ghiz was known around the Island for his intelligence and the rest of the country for his role in the Meech Lake Accord. Arguably, the most important Island premier in national politics since Davies. With almost 25% of first preferences, Ghiz looks like he'll get a spot in the semis.

Catherine Callbeck - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Another first - the first elected female premier in Canada (in a province that has only elected 20 different women to its legislature). Her tenure was short but tumultuous. However, she stayed undefeated, letter her successor Keith Milligan take the electoral loss to Pat Binns in 1996. Now a Senator.

Pat Binns - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Binns, the affable bean farmer, MacLean protege and cabinet minister and one-term MP, would win three big election victories. He led the province through economic growth and some modernization. Binns tested the electorate one too many times and his Tories were soundly defeated on May 28 - to Ghiz's son Robert. Tied with his sucessor's father in first preference votes so far, Binns is another likely semi-finalist.

So if you've yet to vote, get your vote in - polls close tomorrow afternoon.

Friday, July 20, 2007

PEIs best premier - nominees 5 through 8

After a few days of voting for PEIs best premier, the favorites are starting to separate from the pack. Pat Binns and Joe Ghiz are clearly in the lead, both with enough first preference votes to be elected. My personal choice, Alex Campbell, is in third, while Stewart, Jones, MacLean and Callbeck appear to be the most likely candidates to move on to the final 6.

If you haven't voted yet, please take a second to cast a vote for PEIs best premier.

Thane A. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Campbell the elder became Island Premier in 1936, after the death of Premier Walter M. Lea, who had led the Liberals to the first ever legislative sweep in the history of Westminster parliaments just the year earlier. In his seven years as Premier, this lawyer and Rhodes Scholar would pass the first law governing the civil service and establish the national park on the beautiful dunes of the north shore. His son Alex would become premier, making the Campbells the first Liberal family dynasty in the Premier’s Office.

J. Walter Jones - wiki/gov.pe.ca

After succeeding Campbell, Jones would serve for nearly a decade as Premier. An agronomist, Jones was an expert in the once important fox farming industry and credited with making the potato the staple of Island agriculture. Elected to the legislature in the sweep of 1935, he would take the Premier’s Chair in 1943 after Campbell took a seat on the provincial Supreme Court.

Jones became in/famous for his strident defence of Island agriculture. His policies are best summed up by the 1947 Canada Packers strike where he used the legislative power (which was of course overwhelming in the hands of gerrymandered rural districts) to break the strike and ban national and international unions on PEI (of course stronger in urban PEI). Jones justified it as “protecting the farm interest”. He would leave Island politics in 1953 to become a Senator.

Walter R. Shaw - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Another farmer, Shaw first became noted as a livestock breeder. He served as Deputy Minister before getting into politics and launched the PEI Federation of Agriculture. He won the Tory leadership in 1957 and would defeat the Liberal administration of Alex W. Matheson in 1959 at the ripe old age of 71. Shaw would bring some degree of centralization to secondary schools through a system of regional high schools and develop the food processing industry. He would win another election in 1962 before narrowly losing the 1966 election, by far PEIs most hard fought election.

Alex B. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca

As I mentioned above, Campbell the younger is my choice for the Island's best premier. He took office after a dramatic election in 1966. During the campaign, one of the candidates in the First Kings riding on the eastern tip of the Island passed away, prompting the election administrators to postpone the vote in that riding. After the other 30 seats were split between the PCs and the Liberals, the reins of power came down to the subsequent by-election a dozen days later. In the meantime, Shaw named one of the Conservative candidates (the Island has dual-member districts until 1997) as Transportation Minister and proceeded to pave everything in the district. As this great archived piece from the CBC shows (watch it if you've got 10 minutes to kill,it well done), the voters of First Prince said thank you very much for the road work and elected two Liberal MLAs, making the 33 year-old Campbell one of the youngest premiers in Canadian history.

Campbell quickly staked out a position as a social reformer. His government has a particular focus on economic development, working with the federal government to enact the Comprehensive Development Plan, further professionalizing the Island's civil service. The Campbell government was ahead of its time, concerned with issues like renewable energy before they became fashionable, bringing the ultimately ill-fated Institute of Man and Resources to PEI. He further revamped the educational system by bringing in consolidated schools in rural PEI and established restrictions on absentee ownership of land. As Island historian Wayne MacKinnon argues in a book I really should pick up, Campbell "sought to achieve a balance between two conflicting cultures, and in the process, laid the foundations for the modernization of Prince Edward Island".

After a dozen years in office, making him the Island's longest serving first minister, Campbell left office to take a position on the province's Supreme Court.

I should be back tomorrow or early Sunday with the last four nominees for the Island's best premier. Remember, voting will close Monday afternoon, so get your votes in here.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

PEIs Best Premier - the early years

The poll for PEIs best premier is now online at Demochoice.org - go here to vote. The balloting will continue until next Monday afternoon, when I get into Toronto, probably around 2:00 EST.

As CG notes, the first round will be a STV ballot to reduce the list of a dozen premiers down to six. Sounds strange for someone who's working to bring in MMP in Ontario, but I'm an electoral reform advocate above all. I'd support MMP, STV or any other crazy electoral system a representative group of average folks select. Anything other than our outdated, undemocratic first-past-the-post system.

Once the top six are selected, we'll go to a CFL style 6-premier showdown, with the top two vote getters getting byes into the semi-finals. Any ties will be broken by me, because I'm the boss here!

I’ve decided to go through the list of Premiers chronologically. I’ll break down the twelve contenders for the title in groups of four. First, the best of the Island’s premiers from the first part of its history:

James Colledge Pope - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Pope gets the nod for being Premier when PEI entered Confederation, although he had served as Premier twice while the Island was still a British colony. A Conservative, Pope gets bonus points for leading the colonial government that started the ill-fated PEI railway that forced the nearly-bankrupt colony to join Confederation.

Ironically, it was the Liberals who negotiated PEIs way into Confederation, but subsequently lost an election to Pope’s Tories just before that fateful day – July 1, 1973. Subsequently, Pope bolted for the House of Commons three months after PEI became Canada’s seventh province. He bounced back and forth between the House and Province House in Charlottetown, serving as Minister of Fisheries in the former for a period of 4 years.

Louis Henry Davies - wiki/gov.pe.ca

PEIs first post-Confederation Liberal premier, Davies defeated Pope’s successor Lemuel Cambridge Owen (best name for an Island premier by far!) in 1876. His three-year administration, a shaky coalition of with some Tories, managed to bring in a public secular school system and reform the civil service (not very successfully we’ll see) before being defeated in the legislature three years later.

Davies left for Ottawa in 1882 and served as Minister of Fisheries for Laurier (another pattern), until he left for the Supreme Court in 1901 – the first and only Islander to serve on that body. The only Rt. Hon. Among the bunch he became Chief Justice in 1916, holding the position until his death eight years later.

Aubin-Edmond Arsenault
- wiki/gov.pe.ca

The only Acadian to occupy the Premier’s office and the first to lead a Cabinet in Canadian history, Arsenault succeeded John A. Mathieson as Conservative leader and Premier in 1917, after nine years in the Legislative Assembly. Defeated by the Liberals two years later, he did make on legal reform that would dramatically impact Island culture for years to come – repealing legislation that limited Islanders’ car driving to certain days and roads.

James David Stewart - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Stewart became Premier in 1923 when he defeated John Howatt Bell’s Liberals. He would lose his post in 1927 for being – god forbid! – unwilling to bring in complete prohibition. Tenaciously he stuck around for another term as Leader of the Opposition and became Premier for a second time in 1931. He would press Ottawa for a better deal to help the Island deal with the Depression, but the job took a toll on his health and he would die two years later.

So in the first group, we’ve got two historical firsts, the Island’s only Supreme Court Justice and two-term premier who was killed by the job. Don’t let anyone tell you that being Premier of the Garden in the Gulf is easy!

I think I’m leaning towards the accomplished Davies and Stewart as my favorites in this bunch. If you’ve got an idea on your preferences, go vote here.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Vote for MMP - and PEIs best premier!

First off, just wanted to plug my work's new website. I think it looks pretty sweet. I think the blog search function is pretty cool. So bookmark Vote for MMP for all your electoral reform needs! Send the link to your friends! And Ontarians, vote for more choice, fairer results and better representation on October 10.

But even more excitingly, I've decided to take part in the inimitable Calgary Grit's Search for Canada's Best Premier. I'll be hosting the "Search for PEIs greatest premier right here on this blog over the next couple of weeks.

I've decided I'll start off the competition by putting a selected group of a dozen premiers (6 Liberals and 6 Tories, for balance's sake) in an STV poll. I'll post that link tomorrow once I figure how to set that up, but without further adieu, here's my list of nominees for PEI's best premier:

James Colledge Pope - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Louis Henry Davies - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Aubin-Edmond Arsenault - wiki/gov.pe.ca
James David Stewart - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Thane A. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca
J. Walter Jones - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Walter R. Shaw - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Alex B. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca
J. Angus MacLean - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Joe Ghiz - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Catherine Callbeck - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Pat Binns - wiki/gov.pe.ca

Sunday, July 15, 2007

PEI Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform?

Some news from back home on the Island that should be of interest to those following electoral reform in Canada.

As I've noted the new PEI Liberal government promised to "set up a Citizens' Assembly" in the "Accountability" section of their winning platform. But what's really interesting about this story is that the group promoting this event. Included in that group are both key supporters of the Yes for MMP Coalition from the November 2005 plebiscite, like Ron Kelly who's quoted in the article, and Ivan Macarthur and Gordon Cobb, the masterminds behind the No campaign.

All of the people I've met in that group are really capable leaders, so I'm excited to work with them to show the PEI government how to stage a citizens' assembly that improves upon the processes undertaken in BC and Ontario.

I'll have to prepare a paper for this upcoming conference I think. I look forward to hearing other Island leaders' thoughts on how to best design an electoral reform process that engages and educates Islanders.

Sunday, July 08, 2007

I'm a bad blogger

As usual, I haven't been the best blogger. But I have been a pretty busy guy the past month. I've been doing much more travelling than normal.

First, it was a trip to the Fair Vote Canada AGM at Ryerson University at the start of June. It was great to be inn a room with such a diverse group of people concerned about the health of Canadian democracy. I've been at the last four FVC AGMs and this one was by far the best. A good sign for the upcoming Ontario referendum this Fall. In particular, it was great to see a much younger crowd than normal. I think Ontario university and college students can expect to hear about MMP and how it can improve our democracy this Fall.

Then, it was back home for a quick visit to PEI to pop into Fanningbank, the lieutenant governor's beautiful old mansion in Charlottetown and see my Dad get sworn in to the new provincial government, as Minister of Education and Attorney General. Needless to say, I was very proud of my Dad that day. For my entire life, Dad has provided a positive example as someone who uses their talents to contribute to the community. He's got a bit more power and responsibility now, but I know he'll bring the same intelligence, hard work and integrity he's brought to other projects in his life to his new job.

I won't comment on PEI politics too much (being a good son) but maybe I'll find the time this week to discuss the Ghiz government's first smart strategic move.

Then I spent about a week in the greatest city in the world (well at least of the few I've been to before). Well technically, we never left Manhattan, but did get to see the sights, some wicked art and a hilarious Broadway show.

I wish I could have been back for the recent legislature opening in PEI, but have been commuting to Toronto the last couple of weeks for my job. But I'll be back with much more about that over the next three months.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Winds of change blowing on PEI

First, a big victory for the Liberals and premier-designate Robert Ghiz after a very-well run campaign. According to this Guardian story, the magnitude of the victory even surprised its architect and star performer.

For detailed election results, the Elections PEI website is world class.

Looking at my predictions, it turns out that I was way off myself. Looks like 4 seats was the floor for the Tories, I just picked the wrong ones! Never thought my middle school soccer coach/Provincial Treasurer Mitch Murphy would lose in District 20 but I stand corrected. If there's one Cabinet minister I was sad to see lose, it's him.

Props have to be given to the PEI Greens under the leadership of a woman I know well - Sharon Labchuk. In their first election, they beat the PEI NDP, both in popular vote and in terms of votes per candidate. Sharon's a tireless Green (deep, deep green) activist and been doing excellent (and prophetic it seems) work on the health and environmental effects of industrial agriculture on PEI for years.

It was clearly not a good election for the PEI NDP who were passed by the upstart Greens. From this political junkie's vantage, leader Dean Constable had a admirable campaign. The NDP was in the media with what appeared to be a well thought out platform (and campaign plan). I know the party is concentrating on building for the future so if they ran decent campaigns and trained some volunteers and identified lots of the 1600 votes they won, it was was a strong building block for future success.

As for Premier Binns, I'd love to ask him if today he wishes that he had done more the cause of proportional representation during his time in office. Because had the plebiscite passed in November 2005, it's likely that the standings in the next legislature would include an opposition of a dozen MLAs rather than four (all PCs and perhaps one Green). Thankfully the Liberals have promised a Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform(see here), so we can expect the debate on electoral fairness to continue to develop on PEI.

Finally, I must say I'm so happy for the MLA-elect in District 22. Obviously, I've learned a great deal from my father. My interest in politics and community service was instilled my emulating my Dad. He's a smart, hard-working person who genuinely cares about his community. He's worked hard for them as an educator and community volunteer and I know he will do the same in historic Province House and in the government caucus.

It's late but I'll try and type out a more detailed analysis on the dynamics of the campaign tomorrow, but from a dedicated observer of PEI politics - this one's been a doozy!

Monday, May 28, 2007

PEI election wrapup/prediction

I last dropped in just before the PEI election, which is going on as I type.

Our of respect for my dear old Dad (whose campaign adventures are chronicled here), I've held my tongue so far, but now seeing as it's almost all over but the counting, I wanted to share some thoughts and some predictions. I've been devoting lots of mental energy to democracy in my home province, so I need to unburden myself.

First, the background. Premier Pat Binns is seeking a record fourth term as premier. If he wins, he would be the only Conservative in Canadian history to win four consecutive elections and would be the longest serving Island premier about 2 years into his new term, which by his demeanour of late, seems more and ore unlikely. Binns has staked his reelection chances on his personality and popularity among Islanders, adopting the slogan "Leadership That Works", after all Wikipedia calls him PEI's "affable and unassuming premier."

His challenger for the Premier's chair is the youthful Liberal leader of the Opposition, Robert Ghiz, 33 year-old son of former premier Joe Ghiz, which as he candidly acknowledges in this good CP piece has been both a blessing and a curse. As the Tory campaign has demonstrated, by its emphasis on the Premier, some Islanders feel the younger Ghiz is not as ready for the job as his Harvard-educated father was. However, if Robert can be as focused and on message for the next four years as he was for the last four weeks, he may go down in history as a two-term Premier as well.

Simply, the Tories have tried to make it about the choice of Premier, while the Liberals, with their (excellent) slogan "Islanders First for a Change" sought to be the beneficiaries of a change of government and frustration with years of Tory government.

The most significant event in the campaign so far was a May 19 poll in the Charlottetown Guardian newspaper which showed the Liberal party with a significant lead and a projected majority government. While still within the margin of error, this was likely the only time in Binns' career that he was 7 points behind the Opposition.

The Electoral Geography

Before getting on to a prediction, I'll review the electoral landscape on PEI (see here for a CBC piece on the swing seats. A cursory look at PEI electoral history shows us that few seats are truly safe. I'd classify the following seats as likely wins for Liberals - Districts 13 (Ghiz), 16, 17 and 18. All of these districts are currently represented by the Liberals and save a very unlikely swing back to the Tories from 2003 results, they will win these seats.

For the Tories, considering the results of the CRA poll, they likely only have about four seats truly safe for them - Districts 2, 4 (the Premier), 7 and 20. However, I'd say that there are another three seats the Tories will win even in a worst case scenario - Districts 5, 10 and 27.

However, based upon past results and the results of CRA poll, which showed a big Liberal lead in Queens County in particular, I'd say there are another 8 likely Liberal wins - Districts 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 22 (Go Dad! this poor CBC reporter must've been spun right around by Tories at Bakin' Donuts), 24 and 25.

Now this leaves 8 seats as the battleground ridings - Districts 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 21, 23 and 26. If the Tories pull them all off they could still win a bare majority, but I wouldn't bet on it. They might be able to hold off Liberal gains in half of those ridings, but no more. I'll say the Tories could still take four of those seats due to their strength in rural PEI, let give Districts 1, 3, 9 and 26 to the Tories. That leaves these as my final predictions.

Predictions:

Liberals (16) - Districts 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25

PCs (11) - Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 20, 26 and 27.

NDP and Greens 0 - On these two parties, as much as I wish they'd be in Province House, frankly, they are marginal to this campaign. The bigger fight is for fair voting in PEI and thankfully, my predicted winner have promised a Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform for PEI (although I can't find the promise on their website).

I'd predict both the minor parties get less than 3% of the vote, possibly even less than 2%. I'd say the odds are even on which one wins more votes, to bug my girlfriend, I'll pick the PEI NDP.

Most successful non-Lib/PC candidate - Larry McGuire in District #7, who I think can take second.

Most successful NDP/Green candidate - NDP Leader Dean Constable in District #12, who could top 10%. If he tops 20%, I'll be wrong with my prediction and this on could go PC. Although I could see Green Jamie Larkin doing well in District #19 and Ryan Pollard for the NDP in District #21.

Well the polls close soon, so I'll end this post. I'll be back later tonight with more thoughts. Interesting things to watch tonight:

- The "bandwagon" effect - will a perceived Liberal win swing lots of seats as undecided voters plump for a government MLA?
- The "leadership" effect - Will Islanders go for "leadership that works"? Do rural Islanders really have something against Robert Ghiz?
- The "change" effect - What percentage of voters vote for change (for parties other than the PCs)? Will the Liberal be able to get most of this vote?
- The map effect - How will the gerrymandered electoral map affect the results? Keep in mind the Tories drew the boundaries to suit their political purposes, so they could very well win a majority with less votes than the Liberals.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

PEI election call expected tomorrow ...

I've been a bad blogger the last couple of weeks. I blame students and their hard-to-read writing on exams. Also, it's been busy in the electoral reform world. It's good to see that lots of members of the blogging community are saying nice things about the MMP model designed by the Ontario Citizens' Assembly. I hope to be talking about a lot over the coming months about how MMP can improve Ontario political life and countering lots of the myths that opponents of advanced democracy will be trying to push upon Ontarians.

But I want to address more pressing electoral issues in this post - the impending election in my home province of PEI. CP (and all my PEI political sources) tells us that three-term Premier Pat Binns will call a provincial election tomorrow at his nomination meeting, as has been his custom the previous two elections. The Charlottetown Guardian has their take here.

What are the big issues on my native Isle? CP says it's outmigration (like me lots of young Islanders are elsewhere seeking opportunities) and water quality (intensive potato production has increase nitrates in ground water). If CP is right and those are the ballot box issues, things may turn out very well for Liberal challenger Robert Ghiz.

The Premier is hoping the election will be swung by his progressive action on two issues near and dear to Island voters ... canned pop and Sunday shopping. Now, thanks to Binns' leadership, Islanders can engage in both of these sinful pursuits.

Full disclosure here, I've got lots of connections to this vote. My father (who would make a stellar MLA) is running for the Liberals in my home district (#22, St. Eleanors-Summerside) against a PC city councillor who I personally like (but is way to ideologically right for my taste) and one of my Facebook friends for the Island New Democrats. It remains to be seen if my girlfriends Mom's political party will be standing a candidate against my Dad.

As you can seee, elections on PEI are an intimate affair. I may share some more of my thoughts here as the campaign progresses. I must admit I will be imagining how different things could have been if things had happened differently in the Fall of 2005.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

Provincial election in the garden province

Great CP article on the wires today about the likely upcoming election in my native province of PEI. I don't want to comment too much on the article because as a UPEI political science prof astutely notes in it, Island politics is "a personal and family activity".

As PEI politics has "a certain intimacy ... unmatched anywhere else in Canada, I will likely know most of the candidates, some better than others. I can't find a list of candidates online, but you'll note a family connection between myself and the Liberal candidate in my home district (#22). I know who's got my vote, but there will undoubtedly be candidates I like and respect in all four provincial political parties.

To ensure I have a free place to stay next time I'm back on PEI, I won't be blogging regularly on the day-to-day of the election, although as I will undoubtedly be carefully observing how the PEI electoral campaigns migrates from the coffee shops to cyberspace, I may add the occasional thought on that fascinating topic.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Some brief thoughts on the budget ...

- Looks like Boisclair saved us all from a Spring election. This must be the first time a provincial (separatist, no less) opposition leader determined FEDERAL election timing.

- But with no federal election in the offing, it looks like there will be a election in Prince Edward Island in the coming weeks. While Flaherty didn't deliver a 10-province standard with full inclusion of natural resources, he has undoubtedly delivered more for PEI on this file than 4 government MPs ever did (as PEI had all Liberal MPs throughout the Liberal government years). Binns will be rightly able to claim that his relationship with Harper delivered more money for PEI and I'm sure he thinks that can help ensure he becomes PEIs longest serving premier (well, he'd have to stay on until 2009 to do that, which is an open question).

- Is it just me or is Harper doing a good job of being moderate? I mean when the harshest criticism for you budget are coming the business lobby ad the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, we're talking about a Liberal budget. Of course, the Liberals and the NDP will oppose it for fear they are slapped by the other as "propping up Harper", but this will certainly make it harder to paint Harper as a scary boogeyman who will make us all Americans.

- Finally, flowing from that last point, clearly Harper would love to go to the polls on this budget. Will he find an issue to bring down parliament on this session? I tend to think not, because to do so he might have to make something really right-wing a confidence matter, which would kind of defeat the whole purpose of all this moderation.

Friday, March 16, 2007

Should we working for democracy this morning, but saw something in my morning perusal of Macleans online (which is really great, btw), I saw this story about the NDPs budget demands and my blood started to boil a little bit.

Good to see Jack getting out and setting parameters for NDP support for the budget. And I guess it's smart politics to make a solid pitch to win Saskatchewan seats, after all they are eminently winnable. But calling for the exclusion of resource revenues from the equalization is bad policy and not in line with NDP values.

Why? Because this would royally screw my beloved home province and is not in the spirit of the constitution.

Subsection 36 (2) of the Constitution states that "Parliament and the government of Canada are committed to the principle of making Equalization payments to ensure that provincial governments have sufficient revenues to provide reasonably comparable levels of public services at reasonably comparable levels of taxation."

I fail to see how excluding oil and gas revenues, which as Canada inevitably becomes an energy superpower will definitely become and bigger component of provincial budgets, from the equalization formula helps equalize provincial services.

In the interests of fairness, the NDP should be calling for nothing less than a 10-province standard that includes all provincial revenues. Anything else, in an era of rising energy prices, is unfair. If the goal of equalization is to allow provinces to provide equal services at comparable taxation levels, then you can't exclude the huge pile of petro-dollars in their coffers from the calculation. To do so will prevent provinces with no oil or gas, like poor little PEI, from having the same fiscal capacity as other provinces.

The biggest irony is that PEI might have the most forward looking energy and environmental policies of any provincial government. Despite an ongoing fiscal crunch, PEI has made investment in wind power a priority and are set to be leaders in this industry, that I thought Jack Layton supported.

The NDP is no more likely to win seats in PEI than they are in the Saguenay or Missisauga or Calgary, but that doesn't mean they should not get behind a fair equalization system that works for all Canadians.