After another low turnout, it looks like we've got a winner in the PEIs greatest premier contest.
My personal choice come through victorious - Alex Campbell - the Island's longest serving premier, who is often credited with being the strongest modernizing force in PEI history.
I'm looking forward the rest of the competition and hope the blogosphere in the rest of the country will give Campbell a fair shake.
Finally, we've arrived at the finals for PEIs best premier. It's come down to a battle between the longest serving Conservative premier in Island history versus the longest serving Liberal premier - Pat Binns vs. Alex Campbell.
You can vote to determine PEIs greatest premier by clicking on this link.
I've already cast my vote for Campbell, but I think both of these two would be worthy choices.
Since voting's been slowing to a crawl the last few rounds, I'm not going to go on about the two candidates, but look at previous posts for my take on them. I will leave you with a couple of good media links from the CBC though. First, a CBC-TV story on Binns' first victory in 1996. Second, a great longer TV piece on the oh-so-close, and fascinating, election that put Campbell in the premier's office in 1966.
It's really late and I've been working all day, plus the number of votes in this is almost non-existant, so I'm not going to go into great depth. I'll just explain my votes in this round.
If you care about who's named PEIs best premier, take the time to vote. Your vote really will count!
Pat Binns (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here
I've been torn on who to pick in this match-up. Binns certainly has a longer record as premier and much more electoral success. However, MacLean also had a very impressive streak of nine electoral wins after close losses in his first two federal elections in 1945 and 1949. Also, MacLean retired of his own accord, rather than going down in flames in the worst PEI election campaign I've ever observed.
Binns certainly deserves credit for growing the Island economy, despite having a federal government and 4 Liberal MPs who seemed to be determined to underfund the Island provincial goverment. However, his embrace of Stephen Harper in the 2005-6 election campaign was, in hindsight, clearly a big strategic mistake (I've got to think that Binns must have been a little disappointed that he couldn't run against Ottawa for a fourth consecutive election).
Binns deserves credit for bringing the issue of electoral reform to the table on PEI, but when the time came for him to take leadership on the issue he chickened out. Also, his overblown rhetoric and inability to control his caucus during the gerrymandering fiasco of Summer 2006 is a stain on his reputation. I was leaning towards casting my vote for Binns, but then I saw this news story today and was reminded of the Binns government's propensity to use the public purse to reward its supporters. As a result I'm going to cast my vote for the only Tory my maternal grandparents ever liked, the man who the Globe and Mail said "has the charm of a potato" - J. Angus MacLean!
Joe Ghiz (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Alex Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here
This battle between two legendary Liberal families was also a tough choice for me. Joe Ghiz was certainly a giant in PEI politics. He was the Premier who started the negotiations that led to the Confederation Bridge and played an important role on the national stage during the Meech Lake Accord. Renowned on PEI for his intellect and rhetorical flourish, he never was able to live up to his Opposition promises of reducing patronage once he got into government. Hopefully, his son's legacy as Premier will be to cleanse the PEI government of low politics.
But I've got to go with Alex Campbell. While he did loom as large on the national stage, he dramatically affect Island life, radically reshaping its institutions and nudging (at times dragging) a traditional society into the modern era. Thanks to a brilliant campaign by the younger Ghiz this spring, he will remain PEIs longest serving premier for at least another decade - and I would argue, PEIs best premier!
The voting will continue until Friday afternoon around 6:00 Atlantic time. Then I'll set up another poll for the finals, which will go until Sunday evening.
I'm a little disappointed with the number of votes in the last round, but we'll plow ahead with the contest nonetheless.
The semi-finals are just what I expected with Alex Campbell and Angus MacLean moving on. That sets up another round of matchups between a pair of Liberal and a pair of Tory premiers in the semi-finals. All four legendary figures in Island politics and the latter match-up being a particularly interesting one between mentor and protege.
Pat Binns (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here
Joe Ghiz (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. Alex Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca) - vote here
The voting will continue until Friday afternoon around 6:00 Atlantic time. Will be back tomorrow sometime with a break-down of these match-ups.
I’m disappointed with the low numbers of votes in this round so far. We had just over 40 votes in the preliminary round, but only 11 so far – between the two match-ups!
The voting in this round will close late tomorrow evening, so get your votes in!
Alex Campbell v. Walter Jones – vote here
Alex B. Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca)
As I’ve said, the younger Campbell would be my personal choice for the Island’s greatest premier – and not just because he’s the only remain native of my home town Summerside. Although his premiership ended before I was born, Campbell had a sterling reputation in my Liberal family. Generally acknowledged as a forward-thinking visionary, Campbell had a bigger vision for the Island than anyone who’s come before or after him. He left a permanent mark on Island politics through the establishment of restrictions of absentee ownership of land, the development of consolidated schools in rural PEI and the establishment of UPEI by combining the two denominational post-secondary institutions that were in Charlottetown.
J. Walter Jones (wiki/gov.pe.ca)
“Farmer Jones” would not be my choice for best premier, but he clearly was a passionate promoter of Island agriculture. Credited with starting the seed potato industry on PEI, he also played an important role in the silver fox farming industry. He first ran for elected office as a Farmer-Progressive candidate in the 1921 federal election, but would become a Liberal in the 1935 sweep, taking the Premier’s chair eight years later after Alex’s father Thane took a seat on the bench. While not a friend of organized labour, Jones does get some credit in my books for being the Premier to finally bring an end to prohibition in the Garden Province (which was of course the last in Canada to do so).
Angus MacLean v. James Stewart – vote here
Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca)
MacLean had a variety of jobs in his long life – fighter pilot, MP, Minsiter of Fisheries, Postmaster General, Premier and blueberry farmer. Also, he served as a mentor to a future Premier, and one of the leaders in this contest so far, Pat Binns. A distant relative of mine (and no, not everyone on PEI is related, MacLean is fondly remembered by many Islanders for his devotion to the traditional Island way of life, despite only being Premier for just over two years. He fought suburban sprawl (something later Premiers should have emulated), even bringing in a moratorium on shopping malls.
James Stewart (wiki/gov.pe.ca)
I’m away from a library or my books on Island history, so I can’t do much further research on Stewart, so I’ll just repeat what I wrote last week. I gotta give the guy credit for being the first Island premier to serve two separate terms and having the cojones to fight the prohibitionists.
Stewart became Premier in 1923 when he defeated John Howatt Bell’s Liberals. He would lose his post in 1927 for being – god forbid! – unwilling to bring in complete prohibition. Tenaciously he stuck around for another term as Leader of the Opposition and became Premier for a second time in 1931. He would press Ottawa for a better deal to help the Island deal with the Depression, but the job took a toll on his health and he would die two years later.
It’s now Monday afternoon and I’m calling the voting for the preliminary round of PEIs best premier closed.
The Premiers moving on to the next round are:
1 (tie). Pat Binns
1 (tie). Joe Ghiz
3. Alex B. Campbell
4. Angus MacLean
5. James D. Stewart
6. J. Walter Jones
So in the quarter-final matchups, it looks like a contest between two Liberals and another between two Tory premiers.
Alex B. Campbell (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. J. Walter Jones (wiki/gov.pe.ca) – vote here
J. Angus MacLean (wiki/gov.pe.ca) vs. James D. Stewart (wiki/gov.pe.ca) – vote here
Voting in this round will continue until Wednesday at 6:00 p.m. Atlantic Standard Time.
I’ll be back here tomorrow with some more background on the candidates and my picks to go on to the semi-finals.
After about 41 votes, the final six for the PEIs best premier contest are coming into focus. In this last post before revealing the finalists, I'll just briefly provide some background on the best Island premiers of the past generation, as it looks likely that most of them will be on to the next round. I'll also provide a brief tribute if one doesn't make it through.
J. Angus MacLean - wiki/gov.pe.ca
A distant relative of mine, MacLean was a war hero, MP, Minister of Fisheries (surprise!) and a passionate defender of the Island's rural way of life.
Joe Ghiz - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Canada's first premier of non-European extraction, Ghiz was known around the Island for his intelligence and the rest of the country for his role in the Meech Lake Accord. Arguably, the most important Island premier in national politics since Davies. With almost 25% of first preferences, Ghiz looks like he'll get a spot in the semis.
Catherine Callbeck - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Another first - the first elected female premier in Canada (in a province that has only elected 20 different women to its legislature). Her tenure was short but tumultuous. However, she stayed undefeated, letter her successor Keith Milligan take the electoral loss to Pat Binns in 1996. Now a Senator.
Pat Binns - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Binns, the affable bean farmer, MacLean protege and cabinet minister and one-term MP, would win three big election victories. He led the province through economic growth and some modernization. Binns tested the electorate one too many times and his Tories were soundly defeated on May 28 - to Ghiz's son Robert. Tied with his sucessor's father in first preference votes so far, Binns is another likely semi-finalist.
So if you've yet to vote, get your vote in - polls close tomorrow afternoon.
After a few days of voting for PEIs best premier, the favorites are starting to separate from the pack. Pat Binns and Joe Ghiz are clearly in the lead, both with enough first preference votes to be elected. My personal choice, Alex Campbell, is in third, while Stewart, Jones, MacLean and Callbeck appear to be the most likely candidates to move on to the final 6.
If you haven't voted yet, please take a second to cast a vote for PEIs best premier.
Thane A. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Campbell the elder became Island Premier in 1936, after the death of Premier Walter M. Lea, who had led the Liberals to the first ever legislative sweep in the history of Westminster parliaments just the year earlier. In his seven years as Premier, this lawyer and Rhodes Scholar would pass the first law governing the civil service and establish the national park on the beautiful dunes of the north shore. His son Alex would become premier, making the Campbells the first Liberal family dynasty in the Premier’s Office.
J. Walter Jones - wiki/gov.pe.ca
After succeeding Campbell, Jones would serve for nearly a decade as Premier. An agronomist, Jones was an expert in the once important fox farming industry and credited with making the potato the staple of Island agriculture. Elected to the legislature in the sweep of 1935, he would take the Premier’s Chair in 1943 after Campbell took a seat on the provincial Supreme Court.
Jones became in/famous for his strident defence of Island agriculture. His policies are best summed up by the 1947 Canada Packers strike where he used the legislative power (which was of course overwhelming in the hands of gerrymandered rural districts) to break the strike and ban national and international unions on PEI (of course stronger in urban PEI). Jones justified it as “protecting the farm interest”. He would leave Island politics in 1953 to become a Senator.
Walter R. Shaw - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Another farmer, Shaw first became noted as a livestock breeder. He served as Deputy Minister before getting into politics and launched the PEI Federation of Agriculture. He won the Tory leadership in 1957 and would defeat the Liberal administration of Alex W. Matheson in 1959 at the ripe old age of 71. Shaw would bring some degree of centralization to secondary schools through a system of regional high schools and develop the food processing industry. He would win another election in 1962 before narrowly losing the 1966 election, by far PEIs most hard fought election.
Alex B. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca
As I mentioned above, Campbell the younger is my choice for the Island's best premier. He took office after a dramatic election in 1966. During the campaign, one of the candidates in the First Kings riding on the eastern tip of the Island passed away, prompting the election administrators to postpone the vote in that riding. After the other 30 seats were split between the PCs and the Liberals, the reins of power came down to the subsequent by-election a dozen days later. In the meantime, Shaw named one of the Conservative candidates (the Island has dual-member districts until 1997) as Transportation Minister and proceeded to pave everything in the district. As this great archived piece from the CBC shows (watch it if you've got 10 minutes to kill,it well done), the voters of First Prince said thank you very much for the road work and elected two Liberal MLAs, making the 33 year-old Campbell one of the youngest premiers in Canadian history.
Campbell quickly staked out a position as a social reformer. His government has a particular focus on economic development, working with the federal government to enact the Comprehensive Development Plan, further professionalizing the Island's civil service. The Campbell government was ahead of its time, concerned with issues like renewable energy before they became fashionable, bringing the ultimately ill-fated Institute of Man and Resources to PEI. He further revamped the educational system by bringing in consolidated schools in rural PEI and established restrictions on absentee ownership of land. As Island historian Wayne MacKinnon argues in a book I really should pick up, Campbell "sought to achieve a balance between two conflicting cultures, and in the process, laid the foundations for the modernization of Prince Edward Island".
After a dozen years in office, making him the Island's longest serving first minister, Campbell left office to take a position on the province's Supreme Court.
I should be back tomorrow or early Sunday with the last four nominees for the Island's best premier. Remember, voting will close Monday afternoon, so get your votes in here.
The poll for PEIs best premier is now online at Demochoice.org - go here to vote. The balloting will continue until next Monday afternoon, when I get into Toronto, probably around 2:00 EST.
As CG notes, the first round will be a STV ballot to reduce the list of a dozen premiers down to six. Sounds strange for someone who's working to bring in MMP in Ontario, but I'm an electoral reform advocate above all. I'd support MMP, STV or any other crazy electoral system a representative group of average folks select. Anything other than our outdated, undemocratic first-past-the-post system.
Once the top six are selected, we'll go to a CFL style 6-premier showdown, with the top two vote getters getting byes into the semi-finals. Any ties will be broken by me, because I'm the boss here!
I’ve decided to go through the list of Premiers chronologically. I’ll break down the twelve contenders for the title in groups of four. First, the best of the Island’s premiers from the first part of its history:
James Colledge Pope - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Pope gets the nod for being Premier when PEI entered Confederation, although he had served as Premier twice while the Island was still a British colony. A Conservative, Pope gets bonus points for leading the colonial government that started the ill-fated PEI railway that forced the nearly-bankrupt colony to join Confederation.
Ironically, it was the Liberals who negotiated PEIs way into Confederation, but subsequently lost an election to Pope’s Tories just before that fateful day – July 1, 1973. Subsequently, Pope bolted for the House of Commons three months after PEI became Canada’s seventh province. He bounced back and forth between the House and Province House in Charlottetown, serving as Minister of Fisheries in the former for a period of 4 years.
Louis Henry Davies - wiki/gov.pe.ca
PEIs first post-Confederation Liberal premier, Davies defeated Pope’s successor Lemuel Cambridge Owen (best name for an Island premier by far!) in 1876. His three-year administration, a shaky coalition of with some Tories, managed to bring in a public secular school system and reform the civil service (not very successfully we’ll see) before being defeated in the legislature three years later.
Davies left for Ottawa in 1882 and served as Minister of Fisheries for Laurier (another pattern), until he left for the Supreme Court in 1901 – the first and only Islander to serve on that body. The only Rt. Hon. Among the bunch he became Chief Justice in 1916, holding the position until his death eight years later.
Aubin-Edmond Arsenault - wiki/gov.pe.ca
The only Acadian to occupy the Premier’s office and the first to lead a Cabinet in Canadian history, Arsenault succeeded John A. Mathieson as Conservative leader and Premier in 1917, after nine years in the Legislative Assembly. Defeated by the Liberals two years later, he did make on legal reform that would dramatically impact Island culture for years to come – repealing legislation that limited Islanders’ car driving to certain days and roads.
James David Stewart - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Stewart became Premier in 1923 when he defeated John Howatt Bell’s Liberals. He would lose his post in 1927 for being – god forbid! – unwilling to bring in complete prohibition. Tenaciously he stuck around for another term as Leader of the Opposition and became Premier for a second time in 1931. He would press Ottawa for a better deal to help the Island deal with the Depression, but the job took a toll on his health and he would die two years later.
So in the first group, we’ve got two historical firsts, the Island’s only Supreme Court Justice and two-term premier who was killed by the job. Don’t let anyone tell you that being Premier of the Garden in the Gulf is easy!
I think I’m leaning towards the accomplished Davies and Stewart as my favorites in this bunch. If you’ve got an idea on your preferences, go vote here.
First off, just wanted to plug my work's new website. I think it looks pretty sweet. I think the blog search function is pretty cool. So bookmark Vote for MMP for all your electoral reform needs! Send the link to your friends! And Ontarians, vote for more choice, fairer results and better representation on October 10.
But even more excitingly, I've decided to take part in the inimitable Calgary Grit's Search for Canada's Best Premier. I'll be hosting the "Search for PEIs greatest premier right here on this blog over the next couple of weeks.
I've decided I'll start off the competition by putting a selected group of a dozen premiers (6 Liberals and 6 Tories, for balance's sake) in an STV poll. I'll post that link tomorrow once I figure how to set that up, but without further adieu, here's my list of nominees for PEI's best premier:
James Colledge Pope - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Louis Henry Davies - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Aubin-Edmond Arsenault - wiki/gov.pe.ca
James David Stewart - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Thane A. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca
J. Walter Jones - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Walter R. Shaw - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Alex B. Campbell - wiki/gov.pe.ca
J. Angus MacLean - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Joe Ghiz - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Catherine Callbeck - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Pat Binns - wiki/gov.pe.ca
Some news from back home on the Island that should be of interest to those following electoral reform in Canada.
As I've noted the new PEI Liberal government promised to "set up a Citizens' Assembly" in the "Accountability" section of their winning platform. But what's really interesting about this story is that the group promoting this event. Included in that group are both key supporters of the Yes for MMP Coalition from the November 2005 plebiscite, like Ron Kelly who's quoted in the article, and Ivan Macarthur and Gordon Cobb, the masterminds behind the No campaign.
All of the people I've met in that group are really capable leaders, so I'm excited to work with them to show the PEI government how to stage a citizens' assembly that improves upon the processes undertaken in BC and Ontario.
I'll have to prepare a paper for this upcoming conference I think. I look forward to hearing other Island leaders' thoughts on how to best design an electoral reform process that engages and educates Islanders.
As readers of this blog will know, a favorite topic of mine is electoral and democratic reform, so I wanted to do up a brief post giving a shout out to some bloggers - from all sides of the political spectrum - who have come out to endorse the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform's recommendation of a mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system for Ontario.
Erroneously, opponents of fair and advanced democracy often try to pretend proportional representation is about representing smaller parties. But really, it's about fairly distributing political power and ensuring that all citizens can make effective electoral choices. Supporters of all parties are affected by our antiquated voting system, particularly voters who live in "safe seats" like mine, where the election is often over once the dominant party's candidate is nominated.
MMP will provide voters all across Ontario with more choice, fairer results and stronger representation, but we will return to that over the summer.
It's great to see lots of Liberal bloggers starting to talk about how MMP will improve our democracy. Clear Grit has a long, but very good, discussion of why MMP will work in Ontario. ProgBlog leader Scott Tribe has long been a supporter. And mad props to Queer-Liberal who has a series of really super awesome posts on the issue. In particular, I like his latest post about why Liberals in Ontario would be smart to embrace MMP. After all, it was a fulfilled promise by the McGuinty government that brought us to this historic referendum.
There's even a Liberals4MMP blog that has started. I look forward to seeing the list of pro-MMP Liberal bloggers grow over the summer and into the Fall.
On the complete other end of the spectrum, we find prominent social conservative blogger Suzanne from the Big Blue Wave, who has been following the issue religiously. She has devoted numerous posts to the issue.
Hopefully, we'll see even more right-of-centre bloggers speak out for MMP as the campaign develops. We're still waiting for the first Tory MPP or candidate to come out for MMP, but I can't imagine it'll be too long before a Toronto Tory endorses it, after all, it's clearly in their self-interest.
Finally, to illustrate the broad multi-partisan support for MMP, maybe we should start building a list of bloggers that support MMP ... anyone more tech-saavy than I want to help with that?
As usual, I haven't been the best blogger. But I have been a pretty busy guy the past month. I've been doing much more travelling than normal.
First, it was a trip to the Fair Vote Canada AGM at Ryerson University at the start of June. It was great to be inn a room with such a diverse group of people concerned about the health of Canadian democracy. I've been at the last four FVC AGMs and this one was by far the best. A good sign for the upcoming Ontario referendum this Fall. In particular, it was great to see a much younger crowd than normal. I think Ontario university and college students can expect to hear about MMP and how it can improve our democracy this Fall.
Then, it was back home for a quick visit to PEI to pop into Fanningbank, the lieutenant governor's beautiful old mansion in Charlottetown and see my Dad get sworn in to the new provincial government, as Minister of Education and Attorney General. Needless to say, I was very proud of my Dad that day. For my entire life, Dad has provided a positive example as someone who uses their talents to contribute to the community. He's got a bit more power and responsibility now, but I know he'll bring the same intelligence, hard work and integrity he's brought to other projects in his life to his new job.
I won't comment on PEI politics too much (being a good son) but maybe I'll find the time this week to discuss the Ghiz government's first smart strategic move.
Then I spent about a week in the greatest city in the world (well at least of the few I've been to before). Well technically, we never left Manhattan, but did get to see the sights, some wicked art and a hilarious Broadway show.
I wish I could have been back for the recent legislature opening in PEI, but have been commuting to Toronto the last couple of weeks for my job. But I'll be back with much more about that over the next three months.
First, a big victory for the Liberals and premier-designate Robert Ghiz after a very-well run campaign. According to this Guardian story, the magnitude of the victory even surprised its architect and star performer.
For detailed election results, the Elections PEI website is world class.
Looking at my predictions, it turns out that I was way off myself. Looks like 4 seats was the floor for the Tories, I just picked the wrong ones! Never thought my middle school soccer coach/Provincial Treasurer Mitch Murphy would lose in District 20 but I stand corrected. If there's one Cabinet minister I was sad to see lose, it's him.
Props have to be given to the PEI Greens under the leadership of a woman I know well - Sharon Labchuk. In their first election, they beat the PEI NDP, both in popular vote and in terms of votes per candidate. Sharon's a tireless Green (deep, deep green) activist and been doing excellent (and prophetic it seems) work on the health and environmental effects of industrial agriculture on PEI for years.
It was clearly not a good election for the PEI NDP who were passed by the upstart Greens. From this political junkie's vantage, leader Dean Constable had a admirable campaign. The NDP was in the media with what appeared to be a well thought out platform (and campaign plan). I know the party is concentrating on building for the future so if they ran decent campaigns and trained some volunteers and identified lots of the 1600 votes they won, it was was a strong building block for future success.
As for Premier Binns, I'd love to ask him if today he wishes that he had done more the cause of proportional representation during his time in office. Because had the plebiscite passed in November 2005, it's likely that the standings in the next legislature would include an opposition of a dozen MLAs rather than four (all PCs and perhaps one Green). Thankfully the Liberals have promised a Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform(see here), so we can expect the debate on electoral fairness to continue to develop on PEI.
Finally, I must say I'm so happy for the MLA-elect in District 22. Obviously, I've learned a great deal from my father. My interest in politics and community service was instilled my emulating my Dad. He's a smart, hard-working person who genuinely cares about his community. He's worked hard for them as an educator and community volunteer and I know he will do the same in historic Province House and in the government caucus.
It's late but I'll try and type out a more detailed analysis on the dynamics of the campaign tomorrow, but from a dedicated observer of PEI politics - this one's been a doozy!
I last dropped in just before the PEI election, which is going on as I type.
Our of respect for my dear old Dad (whose campaign adventures are chronicled here), I've held my tongue so far, but now seeing as it's almost all over but the counting, I wanted to share some thoughts and some predictions. I've been devoting lots of mental energy to democracy in my home province, so I need to unburden myself.
First, the background. Premier Pat Binns is seeking a record fourth term as premier. If he wins, he would be the only Conservative in Canadian history to win four consecutive elections and would be the longest serving Island premier about 2 years into his new term, which by his demeanour of late, seems more and ore unlikely. Binns has staked his reelection chances on his personality and popularity among Islanders, adopting the slogan "Leadership That Works", after all Wikipedia calls him PEI's "affable and unassuming premier."
His challenger for the Premier's chair is the youthful Liberal leader of the Opposition, Robert Ghiz, 33 year-old son of former premier Joe Ghiz, which as he candidly acknowledges in this good CP piece has been both a blessing and a curse. As the Tory campaign has demonstrated, by its emphasis on the Premier, some Islanders feel the younger Ghiz is not as ready for the job as his Harvard-educated father was. However, if Robert can be as focused and on message for the next four years as he was for the last four weeks, he may go down in history as a two-term Premier as well.
Simply, the Tories have tried to make it about the choice of Premier, while the Liberals, with their (excellent) slogan "Islanders First for a Change" sought to be the beneficiaries of a change of government and frustration with years of Tory government.
The most significant event in the campaign so far was a May 19 poll in the Charlottetown Guardian newspaper which showed the Liberal party with a significant lead and a projected majority government. While still within the margin of error, this was likely the only time in Binns' career that he was 7 points behind the Opposition.
The Electoral Geography
Before getting on to a prediction, I'll review the electoral landscape on PEI (see here for a CBC piece on the swing seats. A cursory look at PEI electoral history shows us that few seats are truly safe. I'd classify the following seats as likely wins for Liberals - Districts 13 (Ghiz), 16, 17 and 18. All of these districts are currently represented by the Liberals and save a very unlikely swing back to the Tories from 2003 results, they will win these seats.
For the Tories, considering the results of the CRA poll, they likely only have about four seats truly safe for them - Districts 2, 4 (the Premier), 7 and 20. However, I'd say that there are another three seats the Tories will win even in a worst case scenario - Districts 5, 10 and 27.
However, based upon past results and the results of CRA poll, which showed a big Liberal lead in Queens County in particular, I'd say there are another 8 likely Liberal wins - Districts 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 22 (Go Dad! this poor CBC reporter must've been spun right around by Tories at Bakin' Donuts), 24 and 25.
Now this leaves 8 seats as the battleground ridings - Districts 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 21, 23 and 26. If the Tories pull them all off they could still win a bare majority, but I wouldn't bet on it. They might be able to hold off Liberal gains in half of those ridings, but no more. I'll say the Tories could still take four of those seats due to their strength in rural PEI, let give Districts 1, 3, 9 and 26 to the Tories. That leaves these as my final predictions.
Predictions:
Liberals (16) - Districts 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25
PCs (11) - Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 20, 26 and 27.
NDP and Greens 0 - On these two parties, as much as I wish they'd be in Province House, frankly, they are marginal to this campaign. The bigger fight is for fair voting in PEI and thankfully, my predicted winner have promised a Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform for PEI (although I can't find the promise on their website).
I'd predict both the minor parties get less than 3% of the vote, possibly even less than 2%. I'd say the odds are even on which one wins more votes, to bug my girlfriend, I'll pick the PEI NDP.
Most successful non-Lib/PC candidate - Larry McGuire in District #7, who I think can take second.
Most successful NDP/Green candidate - NDP Leader Dean Constable in District #12, who could top 10%. If he tops 20%, I'll be wrong with my prediction and this on could go PC. Although I could see Green Jamie Larkin doing well in District #19 and Ryan Pollard for the NDP in District #21.
Well the polls close soon, so I'll end this post. I'll be back later tonight with more thoughts. Interesting things to watch tonight:
- The "bandwagon" effect - will a perceived Liberal win swing lots of seats as undecided voters plump for a government MLA?
- The "leadership" effect - Will Islanders go for "leadership that works"? Do rural Islanders really have something against Robert Ghiz?
- The "change" effect - What percentage of voters vote for change (for parties other than the PCs)? Will the Liberal be able to get most of this vote?
- The map effect - How will the gerrymandered electoral map affect the results? Keep in mind the Tories drew the boundaries to suit their political purposes, so they could very well win a majority with less votes than the Liberals.
I've been a bad blogger the last couple of weeks. I blame students and their hard-to-read writing on exams. Also, it's been busy in the electoral reform world. It's good to see that lots of members of the blogging community are saying nice things about the MMP model designed by the Ontario Citizens' Assembly. I hope to be talking about a lot over the coming months about how MMP can improve Ontario political life and countering lots of the myths that opponents of advanced democracy will be trying to push upon Ontarians.
But I want to address more pressing electoral issues in this post - the impending election in my home province of PEI. CP (and all my PEI political sources) tells us that three-term Premier Pat Binns will call a provincial election tomorrow at his nomination meeting, as has been his custom the previous two elections. The Charlottetown Guardian has their take here.
What are the big issues on my native Isle? CP says it's outmigration (like me lots of young Islanders are elsewhere seeking opportunities) and water quality (intensive potato production has increase nitrates in ground water). If CP is right and those are the ballot box issues, things may turn out very well for Liberal challenger Robert Ghiz.
The Premier is hoping the election will be swung by his progressive action on two issues near and dear to Island voters ... canned pop and Sunday shopping. Now, thanks to Binns' leadership, Islanders can engage in both of these sinful pursuits.
Full disclosure here, I've got lots of connections to this vote. My father (who would make a stellar MLA) is running for the Liberals in my home district (#22, St. Eleanors-Summerside) against a PC city councillor who I personally like (but is way to ideologically right for my taste) and one of my Facebook friends for the Island New Democrats. It remains to be seen if my girlfriends Mom's political party will be standing a candidate against my Dad.
As you can seee, elections on PEI are an intimate affair. I may share some more of my thoughts here as the campaign progresses. I must admit I will be imagining how different things could have been if things had happened differently in the Fall of 2005.
Great CP article on the wires today about the likely upcoming election in my native province of PEI. I don't want to comment too much on the article because as a UPEI political science prof astutely notes in it, Island politics is "a personal and family activity".
As PEI politics has "a certain intimacy ... unmatched anywhere else in Canada, I will likely know most of the candidates, some better than others. I can't find a list of candidates online, but you'll note a family connection between myself and the Liberal candidate in my home district (#22). I know who's got my vote, but there will undoubtedly be candidates I like and respect in all four provincial political parties.
To ensure I have a free place to stay next time I'm back on PEI, I won't be blogging regularly on the day-to-day of the election, although as I will undoubtedly be carefully observing how the PEI electoral campaigns migrates from the coffee shops to cyberspace, I may add the occasional thought on that fascinating topic.
Big electoral reform news today, that I would be remiss not to share.
This weekend, the historic Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform met to deliberate and choose their preferred alternative voting system. They had been workign on both mixed-member proportional (MMP) and single transferable vote (STV) models. At the conclusion of a weekend of debate, three-quarters of the Assembly members chose MMP. The Assembly will decide on April 15 whether to recommend that system over the status quo, a decision that will trigger a referendum to be held in conjunction with the next provincial election in October.
The MMP system designed by this average group of voters ensures strong proportionality to ensure every vote counts. It is similar to the voting system used in Germany, New Zealand and for elections to the Welsh and Scottish assemblies. MMP would expand voter choice by allowing voters to make two marks on their ballots - one for a preferred local representative and another for their favorite party, which will determine the allocation of the list seats. Under the Assembly's current working model of MMP, 90 members would be elected from constituency seats with another 39 elected from province-wide closed lists, based on the second, or "party", vote.
This made-in Ontario voting reform will finally bring give Ontario a modern, fair voting system. It will improve voter choice, increase political participation, elect more women an visible minorities and promote a more collaborative Queen's Park.
In short, it will revolutionize Ontario democracy for the better. Don't worry, I'll get to explaining just HOW MMP will do all these wonderful things in the weeks and months to come.
For super electoral reform keeners, the amazing TVOntario interactive Citizens' Assembly site should have video from this historic weekend online now.
Live blogging the Quebec election:
If you didn't know yet, I love elections. Find them fascinating. Want to spend my life studying them and working on them and this Quebec 2007 provincial election had been fascinating.
The rise of l'Action dmocratique du Quebec (l'equipe Mario Dumont) has blown apart the Quebec party system. Should be a great night.
9:00 p.m.
Dumont and the ADQ lead in seats. OK, no one saw this coming.
ADQ 45 (30% of the vote), Liberals 44 (33% of the vote) and PQ 35 (30% of the vote), wtf!
ADQ in third, but leading in seats!
I called it on Democratic Space in a comment page the other day, but predict Charest really wishes he had pushed electoral reform through tonight!
9:10 p.m.
CBC calls a minority government. Duh!
9:15 p.m.
CBC just did live look-ins to the ADQ and Liberal HQs in Sherbrooke and Riviere-du-Loup. Totally different scenes, dead in the Eastern Townships, euphoria in Eastern Quebec.
Now the ADQ are ahead in both seats and votes. Boisclair has mortally wounded the separatist movement if these numbers hold. Surely, there are still lots of close races and this can go anyways still. Only 18% of the polls so far, so no need to call it yet.
ADQ 48 (32% of the vote), Liberals 41 (31% of the vote) and PQ 36 (29% of the vote).
9:20 p.m.
Cut to PQ HQ. Doesn't seem too lively there. CBC reports Boisclair is in trouble unless his numbers improve. Duh!
The CBC panel of average voters as flummoxed, as am I. Should be a long night.
9:25 p.m.
CBC finally cuts to the race I'm most interested in, Mercier.
Turp (PQ) 1706, Khadir (Quebec Solidaire) 1576.
Soyons lucides Mercier, votons Solidaires!
9:30 p.m.
Apparently people at Charest's party in Sherbrooke are talking about what these results mean for Ottawa. The CBC reporter notes it's assumed there that Harper is very happy with the results.
9:45 p.m.
Apparently, PQ "senior strategists" are seen crying openly.
Charest still losing to the PQ in Sherbrooke. QS still behind in Mercier, but only by 100 votes, still possible to dream. Couillard the last Liberal standing in la capitale nationale.
Discussion of Dumont's team. CBC English TV is not as confident in their abilities as les Quebecois are. Libs are up 47-43-35. ADQ supporters still partying like rockstars!
10:00 p.m.
ADQ elected in Saint-Jean, the bellwhether riding that has elected a government member every election since 1942. PQ lead in Sherbrooke expanding.
Liberals still leading in popular vote. Liberal pointy head in Sherbrooke makes clear that Jean Charest will will be leading the Liberal government. Seems a little wishful at this point ...
CBC panel notes that this will likely be an "unstable minority". Note to self: have to do an entire blog entry on how PR would ensure stability. Turp's lead in Mercier is now 600, with about 60% of the polls in :(
Liberals still in seat lead. Turnover in l'assemblee nationale will be crazy this time, maybe even 50%. Apparently, its average age will decline as lots of ADQ candidates are younger. Oh, and also the number of women will decline apparently. We'll have to get back to that point ...
10:15 p.m.
Guy in CBC voters' panel makes great point, Charest lost the middle class.
At Liberal HQ, they won't even talk about working with the ADQ. Deck chairs are arranged.
CBC projects Liberal minority government. Charest won't let them see him watch the results, probably because he's still losing his riding. They say the ADQ is now second, the PQ can't catch them.
10:30 p.m.
CBC calls Mercier. PQ hold. Looks like the progressive, environmentalist, feminist left, which garnered about 3-4% of the vote, will be shut out of the legislature.
CBC calls Sherbrooke - Charest goes down! As the CBC panel notes, Charest is likely still premier, but can he stay on? I bet that he resigns and opens a Liberal leadership race.
I'm taking a break for this live blog but will be back in a bit when things look more solid.
11:25 p.m.
Apparently, Charest's back in the lead. News from Sherbrooke is that dastardly separatists were holding back the advance polls.
Dumont makes his appearance in Riv-du-Loup. Figured he'd wait longer. ADQ supporters go apeshit!
12:30 p.m.
Looks like the pudgy little f**ker pulled it out. He won his seat and held on to power, just barely.
| LIB | 47 | 32.95% | ||
| ADQ | 42 | 30.87% | ||
| PQ | 36 | 28.37% |
Some brief thoughts on the budget ...
- Looks like Boisclair saved us all from a Spring election. This must be the first time a provincial (separatist, no less) opposition leader determined FEDERAL election timing.
- But with no federal election in the offing, it looks like there will be a election in Prince Edward Island in the coming weeks. While Flaherty didn't deliver a 10-province standard with full inclusion of natural resources, he has undoubtedly delivered more for PEI on this file than 4 government MPs ever did (as PEI had all Liberal MPs throughout the Liberal government years). Binns will be rightly able to claim that his relationship with Harper delivered more money for PEI and I'm sure he thinks that can help ensure he becomes PEIs longest serving premier (well, he'd have to stay on until 2009 to do that, which is an open question).
- Is it just me or is Harper doing a good job of being moderate? I mean when the harshest criticism for you budget are coming the business lobby ad the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, we're talking about a Liberal budget. Of course, the Liberals and the NDP will oppose it for fear they are slapped by the other as "propping up Harper", but this will certainly make it harder to paint Harper as a scary boogeyman who will make us all Americans.
- Finally, flowing from that last point, clearly Harper would love to go to the polls on this budget. Will he find an issue to bring down parliament on this session? I tend to think not, because to do so he might have to make something really right-wing a confidence matter, which would kind of defeat the whole purpose of all this moderation.
